From owner-cvs-all Sat Mar 16 12:15:42 2002 Delivered-To: cvs-all@freebsd.org Received: from rover.village.org (rover.bsdimp.com [204.144.255.66]) by hub.freebsd.org (Postfix) with ESMTP id B0BF137B400; Sat, 16 Mar 2002 12:15:30 -0800 (PST) Received: from harmony.village.org (harmony.village.org [10.0.0.6]) by rover.village.org (8.11.3/8.11.3) with ESMTP id g2GKFPi52558; Sat, 16 Mar 2002 13:15:25 -0700 (MST) (envelope-from imp@village.org) Received: from localhost (warner@rover2.village.org [10.0.0.1]) by harmony.village.org (8.11.6/8.11.6) with ESMTP id g2GKFNL69053; Sat, 16 Mar 2002 13:15:23 -0700 (MST) (envelope-from imp@village.org) Date: Sat, 16 Mar 2002 11:26:15 -0700 (MST) Message-Id: <20020316.112615.113977724.imp@village.org> To: wkb@freebie.xs4all.nl Cc: bright@mu.org, mckusick@FreeBSD.org, cvs-committers@FreeBSD.org, cvs-all@FreeBSD.org Subject: Re: cvs commit: src/sys/coda coda_vnops.c src/sys/dev/ccd ccd.c src/sys/dev/md md.c src/sys/dev/vinum vinumdaemon.c vinuminterrupt.c vinumrequest.c vinumrevive.c src/sys/fs/hpfs hpfs_vnops.c src/sys/fs/msdosfs msdosfs_fat.c msdosfs_vnops.c ... From: "M. Warner Losh" In-Reply-To: <20020316105245.A19669@freebie.xs4all.nl> References: <20020315185427.GK4857@elvis.mu.org> <200203152325.g2FNPwL61201@harmony.village.org> <20020316105245.A19669@freebie.xs4all.nl> X-Mailer: Mew version 2.1 on Emacs 21.1 / Mule 5.0 (SAKAKI) Mime-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: Text/Plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: owner-cvs-all@FreeBSD.ORG Precedence: bulk List-ID: List-Archive: (Web Archive) List-Help: (List Instructions) List-Subscribe: List-Unsubscribe: X-Loop: FreeBSD.ORG In message: <20020316105245.A19669@freebie.xs4all.nl> Wilko Bulte writes: : On Fri, Mar 15, 2002 at 04:25:58PM -0700, Warner Losh wrote: : > In message <20020315185427.GK4857@elvis.mu.org> Alfred Perlstein writes: : > : In case no one has said it (which I doubt) you rule. :) : > : > daddr64_t is 9,444,732,965,739,290,427,392 bytes, or 9,444,732 PB (P : > expressed in the SI units that disk makers use). This is >> the : > largest disk arrays today (by a factor of 10^8). At a 20%/year growth : > rate for disk sizes, that's 101 years before the largest disk arrays : > get this big :-) : : FWIW: the biggest RFP I ever saw was a customer who wanted us to supply : 1 PB in a single order. Which is approx 65 19" 42 racks : at the moment. Soon to be half that number ;-) Well, if the RFP is the biggest, then that reduces the life to only 88 years (since it is 10^7 times the size of the largest raid arrays today :-). In 88 years, at the 20% growth rate, instead of 160Gish drives being the high end, you'll have 1486000000G (or ~1500P) drives at the high end. Of course this does make the assumption that a moore's-like law of only 20%/year does apply (which is a doubling every 46 months or so). Over the last 10 years was a bad assumption. The largest drives in early 1992 were about 2G, IIRC, and the largest drives in early 2002 are about 160G (someone will tell me of a bigger drive I'm sure :-), a factor of 80 in 10 years, or 55%/year. Moore's law (double every 18 months) is 58.74%/year[*] (if bc is to be trusted). At 58.74%/year, we're only 40 years away from this starting to be a problem. :-) Warner [*] bc -l 1.58740106^6 16.0000004857 (4 doubling in 6 years is one doubling every 1.5 years) To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org with "unsubscribe cvs-all" in the body of the message