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Date:      Wed, 21 Jul 1999 10:45:59 -0600
From:      Brett Glass <brett@lariat.org>
To:        dg@root.com
Cc:        Tani Hosokawa <unknown@riverstyx.net>, freebsd-chat@FreeBSD.ORG
Subject:   Re: poor ethernet performance? 
Message-ID:  <4.2.0.58.19990721103838.04392f00@localhost>
In-Reply-To: <199907210046.RAA17978@implode.root.com>
References:  <Your message of "Tue, 20 Jul 1999 14:51:40 MDT." <4.2.0.58.19990720144745.0439ef00@localhost>

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At 05:46 PM 7/20/99 -0700, David Greenman wrote:

 >  If you're talking about free software, then Linux has been out for two
>years longer than FreeBSD. Current market indicators have Linux about 4 times
>larger installed base than FreeBSD, with both growing at a rate of
>approximately 2X per year. 

Let's suppose, for a minute, that these numbers were accurate (although there
is strong evidence that they aren't). It would mean that the gap between
Linux and FreeBSD would DOUBLE every year, eventually causing Linux to
leave FreeBSD in the dust.

However, in a real-life ecosystem, where growth cannot go on forever, a fixed
ratio is not sustainable. What ultimately happens, in any ecosystem (but especially
in software ecosystems) is that the species with a marked advantage crowds out 
the other. Each time the gap between Linux and FreeBSD doubles, more application
developers desert FreeBSD and go to Linux -- for good. This drives the installed
base of FreeBSD down, so that the ratio stops being 2:1 and becomes 3:1, 4:1, etc.

There is evidence that this is already happening. FreeBSD is already losing share,
and the Linux:BSD ratio is increasing. Vendors such as Xig are dropping FreeBSD
support, and no major ones are adding it.

--Brett Glass



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