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Date:      Mon, 13 Apr 1998 18:26:31 -0600
From:      Wes Peters <wpeters@xylan.com>
To:        esr@thyrsus.com
Cc:        "Justin T. Gibbs" <gibbs@narnia.plutotech.com>, chat@FreeBSD.ORG
Subject:   Re: Open Source Products
Message-ID:  <3532AD36.2968F8B6@xylan.com>
References:  <199804131719.LAA21122@narnia.plutotech.com> <35326353.4E30451B@xylan.com> <19980413201541.65522@snark.thyrsus.com>

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Eric S. Raymond wrote:
> A 4 mil run rate is enough to at least keep VCs from laughing at us.
> So I'll happily carry whatever product this is, despite my personal
> belief that all of the the BSD variants are basically doomed to be eaten
> by the giant expanding blob that is Linux.
> 
> (Can anyone convince me I'm wrong?  Don't bother getting indignant at
> me because I'm not at all happy about believing it.  And don't bother
> trying to convince me that BSD is in many ways technically superior to
> Linux, because (a) I believe you, and (b) it doesn't matter. I think I
> saw "Mene, mene, tekel, uparshin" on your wall when you guys failed to
> outgrow Linux 0.99 back in 1994. But if anyone can spin a plausible
> scenario under which the BSDs survive the next three years, I'd really
> love to hear it.)

I've had this discussion recently with my brother, who is now a Linux
convert because they support PowerPC architecture, and he has boxes
full of these machines lying around at work -- he works in the AIX
support group at Moto.

I can think of a couple of scenarios that may contribute to the ongoing
success of *BSD.  One is the number of "embedded" wins it is getting.
This is an area that Linux doesn't seem to be flourishing much, probably
because (IMHO) embedded programmers are more educated and less likely to
have grown up on PCs.

Another scenario has to do with the success of FreeBSD in network
intensive applications, such as ISPs and web servers.  It is now 
generally acknowleged that Linux does pretty well in this arena, but
in the headspace of a number of these companies, FreeBSD in particular
is still better.  When W. Richard Stevens writes a chapter in a book
about a feature you have and Linux doesn't, it's not going to hurt
your standing with educated network software engineers.  ;^)

A third scenario that is less likely but would still help would be
convergence of the disparate groups back into one organization.  It's
really too bad we have to have three web sites, three ftp server
organizations, three differing (and more or less successful) CD-ROM
programs, etc., for what are very similar products.  I know all about
the differences in the FreeBSD, NetBSD, and OpenBSD organizations, and
the differences in their research thrusts, but it still doesn't matter.
If you slapped a common name on all three, they'd still be much more
similar than any two Linux distributions.  Which leads me into my
last point:

At some time, once Linux starts getting really entrenched in a couple
of highly visible businesses, somebody's going to hit a snag running
a TurboLinux application on a RedHat server or some such silly bunch
of rot, and they're going to tell some hare-brained "journalist" 
about it, and the PC rags are going to have a heyday.  "See, we told
you this Linux stuff was for the birds, trust Microsoft.  Their
products are perfect, and their dedicated support staff will take care
of you."

Let's face it, Walnut Creek's FTP server and Yahoo's server banks,
both run on FreeBSD, comprise two of the largest server installations
on the Internet.  As long as we have an educated market of administrators
and programmers who don't like downtime, FreeBSD (and NetBSD and 
OpenBSD) will have a home.

If you don't believe me, just ask Justin.  ;^)

-- 
Wes Peters                                              Who's going to save you
Principal Engineer                                       When you're a slave to
Xylan Corporation                                  A diamond as big as the Ritz
wpeters@xylan.com                                              -- Jimmy Buffett

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