Date: Wed, 15 May 2002 18:32:47 -0500 From: Mike Meyer <mwm-dated-1021937567.3082d8@mired.org> To: Nils Holland <nils@daemon.tisys.org> Cc: freebsd-chat@freebsd.org Subject: Re: The road ahead? Message-ID: <15586.61471.456290.764885@guru.mired.org> In-Reply-To: <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org> References: <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org>
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In <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org>, Nils Holland <nils@daemon.tisys.org> typed: > Of course, one could say that new technological inventations are made at a > faster pace than ever before - but I guess this is only half of the truth: > For the ordinary Joe, DOS turning into Windows 3.1, Windows 3.1 turning > into Windows 95, and so on, was a real revolution. What seems to be > invented these days seems to be only toys, no more revolutions! Does the > new Fisher Price look in Windows XP make computers easier to use or people > more productive, just like the switch from DOS to graphical Windows did for > ordinary users? I guess not. And then - what else is "new" these days? Some > folks would see the ability to talk to your computer as the next big > revolution (which is partly already possible), but I fear that I have to > say that talking would actually slow folks down, compared to having them > enter commands or use the mouse within a GUI. So, another toy, but nothing > new! You just committed a logical fallacy. You correctly point out that GUIs made computers easier to use or people more productive, then dis talking to the computer because it's *slower* than a GUI. Speed isn't everything, and I'll argue tha GUIs make people *slower*, at least at some tasks. See <URL: http://www.mired.org/home/mwm/papers/windowing.html > for a comparison of a typical GUI window manager with a keyboard-driven one. GUIs provide other advantages such that most people aren't willing to drop them in favor of something faster. The real question about an AUI(tm) - Audio User Interface, pronounced owi - is whether or not it will make people more productive or computers easier to use, and do so to an extent that it being slower is irrelevant. > Bottom line (and at this point I really want to stop wasting your bandwidth > and precious time): I guess that looking at the computer and electronics > company, "all the good ones are taken" or "everything that can (sanely) be > done has been done". Of course, the future may bring the one or the other > new interesting development, but I don't see many real revolutions anymore, > as we seem to have reached a point where going any further does no longer > provide any increased benefit. If I knew what the next great computer revolution was going to be, I'd be looking for investors, not reading freebsd-chat. I suspect the same is true for most everyone here. I will say that it probably already exists. The internet existed in the mid 70s, but didn't hit the popular conscious until the mid 90s. Identifying it, that's the hard part. We geeks aren't likely to do so, because we have such poor perception of what jane sixpack really wants. <mike -- Mike Meyer <mwm@mired.org> http://www.mired.org/consulting.html Independent WWW/Perforce/FreeBSD/Unix consultant, email for more information. To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org with "unsubscribe freebsd-chat" in the body of the message
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