Date: Wed, 15 May 2002 21:19:22 -0700 From: Robert Clark <res03db2@gte.net> To: Mike Meyer <mwm-dated-1021937567.3082d8@mired.org> Cc: Nils Holland <nils@daemon.tisys.org>, freebsd-chat@FreeBSD.ORG Subject: Re: The road ahead? Message-ID: <20020515211922.J1282@darkstar.gte.net> In-Reply-To: <15586.61471.456290.764885@guru.mired.org>; from mwm-dated-1021937567.3082d8@mired.org on Wed, May 15, 2002 at 06:32:47PM -0500 References: <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org> <15586.61471.456290.764885@guru.mired.org>
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On Wed, May 15, 2002 at 06:32:47PM -0500, Mike Meyer wrote: > In <20020516004909.A9808@daemon.tisys.org>, Nils Holland <nils@daemon.tisys.org> typed: > > Of course, one could say that new technological inventations are made at a > > faster pace than ever before - but I guess this is only half of the truth: > > For the ordinary Joe, DOS turning into Windows 3.1, Windows 3.1 turning > > into Windows 95, and so on, was a real revolution. What seems to be > > invented these days seems to be only toys, no more revolutions! Does the > > new Fisher Price look in Windows XP make computers easier to use or people > > more productive, just like the switch from DOS to graphical Windows did for > > ordinary users? I guess not. And then - what else is "new" these days? Some > > folks would see the ability to talk to your computer as the next big > > revolution (which is partly already possible), but I fear that I have to > > say that talking would actually slow folks down, compared to having them > > enter commands or use the mouse within a GUI. So, another toy, but nothing > > new! > > You just committed a logical fallacy. You correctly point out that > GUIs made computers easier to use or people more productive, then dis > talking to the computer because it's *slower* than a GUI. Speed isn't > everything, and I'll argue tha GUIs make people *slower*, at least at > some tasks. See <URL: > http://www.mired.org/home/mwm/papers/windowing.html > for a comparison > of a typical GUI window manager with a keyboard-driven one. GUIs > provide other advantages such that most people aren't willing to drop > them in favor of something faster. > Different tools for different jobs. You can pound nails with a pipe wrench, but it isn't elegant. > The real question about an AUI(tm) - Audio User Interface, pronounced > owi - is whether or not it will make people more productive or > computers easier to use, and do so to an extent that it being slower > is irrelevant. > (IMO) Pen based PDAs are just so much crap. If people will throw all that money at such inelegant crap, there has to be a market for a well thought out speech based device. If for no other reason than it would sell well with the illiterate. Everything about audio is cheap. Crank out a copy of Palm, and call it Speak, and the market is wide open. > > Bottom line (and at this point I really want to stop wasting your bandwidth > > and precious time): I guess that looking at the computer and electronics > > company, "all the good ones are taken" or "everything that can (sanely) be > > done has been done". Of course, the future may bring the one or the other > > new interesting development, but I don't see many real revolutions anymore, > > as we seem to have reached a point where going any further does no longer > > provide any increased benefit. > > If I knew what the next great computer revolution was going to be, I'd > be looking for investors, not reading freebsd-chat. I suspect the same > is true for most everyone here. I will say that it probably already > exists. The internet existed in the mid 70s, but didn't hit the > popular conscious until the mid 90s. Identifying it, that's the hard > part. We geeks aren't likely to do so, because we have such poor > perception of what jane sixpack really wants. > When I'm in a meeting, and my cellphone rings, why doesn't a voice answer the call and say, "Mr Clark is in a meeting, but he is will take your call in a few seconds.", as I'm leaving to take the call in the hallway where my voice won't disturb people? In a market where everyone is falling over each other to bring out WAP, why don't good features ever show up? > <mike > -- > Mike Meyer <mwm@mired.org> http://www.mired.org/consulting.html > Independent WWW/Perforce/FreeBSD/Unix consultant, email for more information. > > To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org > with "unsubscribe freebsd-chat" in the body of the message To Unsubscribe: send mail to majordomo@FreeBSD.org with "unsubscribe freebsd-chat" in the body of the message
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