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Date:      Tue, 19 Apr 2016 13:27:27 -0400
From:      Jon Radel <jon@radel.com>
To:        galtsev@kicp.uchicago.edu
Cc:        freebsd-questions@freebsd.org
Subject:   Re: Raid 1+0
Message-ID:  <57166A7F.2030104@radel.com>
In-Reply-To: <13260.128.135.52.6.1461084740.squirrel@cosmo.uchicago.edu>
References:  <571533F4.8040406@bananmonarki.se> <57153E6B.6090200@gmail.com> <20160418210257.GB86917@neutralgood.org> <64031.128.135.52.6.1461017122.squirrel@cosmo.uchicago.edu> <441t61efpv.fsf@be-well.ilk.org> <13260.128.135.52.6.1461084740.squirrel@cosmo.uchicago.edu>

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On 4/19/16 12:52 PM, Valeri Galtsev wrote:
> Correct, we didn't hear proof of one or another. I, however, can not th=
ink
> of any physical mechanism that can be involved which will lead in case =
of
> failure of one drive to failure of another. That is why I assume events=

> are (pretty much) independent.
>
>
Personally I think you're thinking about it all wrong.  I didn't catch=20
anyone claiming that failure of one drive caused the failure of another=20
(though I've not slogged through the whole thread).  Only that failure=20
of drives from the same manufacturing batch have a tendency to have=20
similar lifespans, and therefore there is some correlation as to when=20
they die.  They have the same design flaws. They have the same=20
substandard components.   Etc., etc.    Why do you think that drives=20
come with MTBF figures, and that they're not all the same for every=20
drive?  That's the summary output of somebody's best estimation of the=20
failure curve for that particular model.

Personally I've never had a clear cut example with disk drives, though I =

did own enough 750 mb drives from brand X some years ago to learn that=20
the involved mechanism, on average, sucked compared to other brand X=20
drives, and they were not to be trusted long term. However, I once saw=20
this very clearly in LCD monitors where I had multiples of the same=20
model.  Turns out that they were caught up in the big "counterfeit"=20
capacitor scandal way back when, when due to imperfect industrial=20
espionage, a manufacturer only thought they'd stolen the formula for a=20
nice electrolyte.  Turns out there was one little factor they'd missed,=20
the stabilizer that kept the capacitor from dropping dead at pretty much =

the same age as every other capacitor of that model.  There most=20
certainly was correlation on those monitors failing.  Luckily they were=20
all still in warranty. :-)

--Jon Radel
jon@radel.com


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