Date: 2 Jun 2003 18:15:04 -0000 From: "Transitions Online" <mail@tol.cz> To: chat@freebsd.org Subject: New at TOL - 2 June 2003 Message-ID: <20030602181504.6390.qmail@compa.tol.cz>
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-------------------------------------------------------------------- Transitions Online - Intelligent Eastern Europe New at TOL: Monday, 2 June 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Top Story: Ukraine: Ukraine’s Deceptive Constitutional Reform President Kuchma’s spurious reform proposals are a step back for Ukraine. The opposition would do well to block them. by Ivan Khokhotva 30 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=3&NrArticle=9642 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . --ANNOUNCEMENT--TOL Interactive Discussion Get the inside story on accession from one of Brussels' best: On Thursday 12 June at 16:00 Central European time (10am Eastern Daylight time), Karel Bartak, the long-time Czech Press Agency (CTK) correspondent will answer readers' questions on enlargement, referenda in Poland and the Czech Republic, and related EU topics. Mr. Bartak has reported from Brussels since 1995 and was a finalist in the 2003 Eury Prize for EU journalism. You can already submit questions now at: http://www.tol.cz/q-a/index.php?IdD=11 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Week in Review: 27 May - 2 June 2003 Russia: On the Edge of a Multipolar World Putin says relations with China are at “their highest level ever” as he tries to narrow the rift with Washington. by Sergei Borisov http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46 Poland: In a Multipolar World Poles broadly welcome Bush visit and their role as a chief U.S. ally in Iraq one week ahead of its EU referendum. by Jakub Jedras http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46 Czech Republic: Shredded Documents, Shredded Reputation? Controversial Czech president of the UN General Assembly back in the news after allegations of improper handling of secret documents come to light. by Pavla Kozakova http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46 Armenia: Yes and No, Mr. President The president retains the support of parliament but fails to win the public’s support for his controversial changes to the constitution. by Anna Hakobyan http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46 Montenegro: Justice Given Short Shift? Public outcry as a court drops charges against suspects in a high-profile human trafficking affair. by Aida Ramusovic http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46 More Week in Review stories... Kosovo Gains Some Powers Serbia To Punish 30-Year-Old Crimes EU Revives Ukraine Pipeline Plan Will GUUAM Worsen Georgia-Russia Relations? Crackdown Continues on Independent Belarusian Media http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/home.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . --ANNOUNCEMENT--FREE INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIPTIONS TO TOL Purchase now your copy of TOL's 2002 Country Annual Survey CD-ROM and receive a FREE INDIVIDUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO Transitions Online (www.tol.cz) The TOL Annual Survey is the most thorough guide to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the former Soviet Union; the CD-ROM contains extensive features on each of the 28 countries covered, presenting trends and developments in these post-communist societies for the previous year, with an element of forecast incorporated. In addition, the CD-ROM features the most important articles published by TOL about each country during the previous year, as well as maps, statistics, and other country-specific online resources. For details and to purchase, please visit this link: http://store.tol.cz/look/store/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=11&NrIssue=1&NrSection=4&NrArticle=8252 Offer valid for a limited time! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Opinions: St. Petersburg Summit: Beyond Mending Fences As the fog of Iraq slowly lifts, what Bush’s neoconservatism and Putin’s romantic pragmatism have in common should become the basis of the two countries’ own postwar settlement. by Peter Lavelle 30 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=3&NrArticle=9643 Ukraine: Ukraine’s Deceptive Constitutional Reform President Kuchma’s spurious reform proposals are a step back for Ukraine. The opposition would do well to block them. by Ivan Khokhotva 30 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=3&NrArticle=9642 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Columns: Notes from St. Petersburg: An Accordion for Goats? Local business may not need Konstaninovsky Palace much, but they have still footed the $280 million bill for the Russian president’s seaside residence. by Vladimir Kovalev 29 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=17&NrArticle=9631 Notes from Tartu: Fast-Falling Angels Whether a scandal, a tempest in a teacup, or a sign of Estonians’ ‘primitive’ demands on politicians, a minor traffic offense is teaching Estonia’s young government the dangers of camping on the moral high-ground. by Raimo Poom 29 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=17&NrArticle=9630 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Serbia’s Roma Refugees Living Out of Sight Roma refugees eke out a makeshift living on the fringes of Serbian society. by Vesna Misic 28 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/CER/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=14&NrIssue=48&NrSection=5&NrArticle=9615 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lithuania’s Jan Palach The Secret of Kaunas A young man's anguished protest brings a city to tears and students onto the streets chanting anti-Soviet slogans. Budapest '56? Prague '69? Guess again. by Rokas M. Tracevskis 23 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/CER/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=14&NrIssue=48&NrSection=5&NrArticle=9580 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Special Package: Editors' Choice Russia: Unaccounted-for Happiness Russians spend much more than they officially earn--and both legal and unaccounted-for income is spent immediately. From Ezhenedelny Zhurnal. by Mikhail Berger 30 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/wire/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=10&NrIssue=715&NrSection=1&NrArticle=9644 Croatia: A Road of No Return Across Croatia, the number of illegal hazardous waste disposal areas is increasing. From Feral Tribune. by Boris Raseta 28 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/wire/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=10&NrIssue=713&NrSection=1&NrArticle=9620 Russia: Fire After Fire Day by day, year after year, Russia is destroying its forests. From Ezhenedelny Zhurnal. by Boris Zhukov 27 May 2003 http://www.tol.cz/look/wire/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=10&NrIssue=712&NrSection=1&NrArticle=9602 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Our Take: The Great Game in the Far East The more important summit in St. Petersburg was arguably not between Putin and Bush, but between Putin and China’s new president. With the world’s only superpower in town, perhaps it was inevitable that the headlines from the mass gathering of heads of state for St. Petersburg’s party were dominated by U.S.-Russia relations. But arguably the Bush-Putin meeting was less important than it might have seemed after the Iraq fallout. The war over the war in Iraq has now been reduced mainly to sniping about reconstruction. North Korea is of course a potential sore point, but Pyongyang has said it considers its nuclear program to be a matter for it and the United States alone, dashing Russia’s attempts at diplomacy. And as for Iran, some clashes may be expected, but it is plausible to argue, as Nikolai Zlobin of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information does, that “now the task for Russia is to save face.” The discussions between George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin may have been less important, in fact, than Putin’s summit with China’s new president, Hu Jintao. Both declared themselves supporters of a “multipolar world”--in the wake of the Iraq war, the euphemism of choice for a world not dominated by the United States. And both sides proved it with actions: Hu chose Moscow, rather than Washington, as his first foreign port of call after assuming the leadership of China, while Putin gave the go-ahead for a huge new oil pipeline to China rather than choosing an alternative pipeline to Japan. We were therefore treated to the spectacle of two great games in play at the same time: one for a multipolar world, the other for Far Eastern oil. Thanks to the volatility of the Muslim world, oil is now a stronger geopolitical playing card for Russia than ever. Japan, which imports all its oil, has embarked on an active search for new sources outside the Middle East and in 2002 imported some Russian oil for the first time since 1978. Diversification is also a new mantra for China, which became a net importer of oil in 1993 and has since become the world’s third-largest importer. Japanese companies now partner some of the Western giants in Siberia, while China has been making a big bid for a stake in the development of Central Asian oil, with the possibility of a pipeline from Kazakhstan. The attractions of Russia as an alternative source have only been enhanced by the discovery in recent years of an oil field near Angarsk, west of Siberia’s Lake Baikal, that reportedly has reserves equal to those of Kuwait. For Russia, the choice of a pipeline from Angarsk either to Daiqing, China, or to Nakhodka, a port on the coast of the Sea of Japan, is the choice between serving one huge market (China), or supplying up to a quarter of Japan’s oil needs and a variety of rich markets along Asia’s Pacific coast. And, despite the phenomenal size of the Angarsk oil field, it really is being presented as a choice: Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov argues that there will be insufficient oil in the foreseeable future to justify both pipelines. >From the outside, the choice between Japan and China would seem to have been no competition. Japan’s relations with Russia still founder in a historical time warp because of the dispute about the status of the Kuril Islands that Russia seized during World War II. In contrast, Sino-Russian relations are racing ahead and picking up speed. In 2001, Jiang Zemin, Hu’s predecessor, signed a friendship treaty with Russia, symbolically opening a new page in a relationship that, during the Soviet era, was by turns friendly, hostile, and cool. Trade between the two countries has doubled in less than a decade, and China in 2002 accounted for more than half of Russia’s arms exports, according to the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. Now, China has for the first time assumed leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a six-member group that currently focuses on issues such as terrorism, separatism, and extremism in Central Asia. An easy political choice, then, for Russia, but also a canny one in the broader context of relations with the United States. In 1997, U.S. President Bill Clinton began calling China a “strategic partner,” going on to become the first U.S. president to visit China since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989. Since 2000, Bush has changed the wording to “strategic competitor.” In choosing the Chinese route, Putin has taken an important step toward a “multipolar world” by forming what is a long-term strategic partnership with China and effectively promising to fuel the next stage of China’s economic development. The hand of supporters of a “multipolar world” has therefore been strengthened, while the stakes have risen for the United States and its allies in the other great game, in the Caspian and Central Asia. With much of the oil from eastern Siberia going to China, they should be even more concerned to ensure that oil from Kazakhstan flows westward, not eastward--and that Russia will have less say in control of Caspian oil. Conceivably, the West might ultimately get the better of Russia in the Caspian and Central Asia, but it would also be a tricky victory, forcing it into a commitment to regions that, like the Middle East, are deeply volatile and in which Russia is bound to retain major influence. Meanwhile, back in the East, Russia is still keeping its bargaining chips with Japan and the Western-style economies of the Pacific. It continues to hold out the possibility of a pipeline to the Sea of Japan. Having lost out once, Japan should logically be even more keen to up its already very generous offer to foot the entire bill for the construction of the pipeline to Nakhodka. At the same time, Russia can--when needed--always pull out one old card, the status of the Kuril Islands, or play on Japanese fears that Russia might instead build a pipeline to South Korea. So, the honors for this round of the Far Eastern Great Game go to Russia. But most of all they go to China for securing a much sought-after supply line. As Russia provides the oil that drives China forward, Putin will be able to contemplate the neglected truth about his vision of a multipolar world. It is China, not Russia, that has the power to become an alternative pole to the United States. Once junior to Russia/the Soviet Union, China is now the stronger and more dynamic of the two. The fundamental difference comes down to their economies: China’s is now five times larger than Russia’s. If Russia does want a multipolar world, it will need to double its GDP in 10 years, as Putin wants to do. That requires average growth of about 7 percent a year. Difficult, but China, for one, has shown that it is possible. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Job Announcement: Czech and Slovak Correspondents http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=14&NrArticle=9476 Belarus Correspondents http://www.tol.cz/look/TOLnew/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=46&NrSection=14&NrArticle=9523 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . -- Advertisement: The Central Asian and Southern Caucasian Freedom of Expression Network has recently launched an English-language website at http://www.cascfen.org devoted to news on the media and about local journalists. Network members from throughout the region provide daily updates, supplementing other sources of freedom of expression news. Your feedback is welcome by visiting http://www.cascfen.org. .................................................... The TOL newsletter is published by Transitions Online--The leading news provider covering Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans, and the former Soviet Union. Check us out at http://www.tol.cz The TOL newsletters reach thousands of subscribers every week. If you want to get in touch with them please contact us at marketing@tol.cz for more information or visit http://archive.tol.cz/mediakit/index.html TOL publications: Transitions Online (TOL)....... http://www.tol.cz Balkan Reconstruction Report... http://balkanreport.tol.cz The TOL Wire................... http://wire.tol.cz Central Europe Review.......... http://culture.tol.cz Knowledge Net (country files) . http://knowledgenet.tol.cz Russian Mirror................. http://www.tolrus.ru .......................................................... -- Transitions Online - Intelligent Eastern Europe Copyright: Transitions Online 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------- To UNSUBSCRIBE from the TOL Weekly Newsletter, please go to http://subscribers.tol.cz/newman/unsubscribel.php?idsubs=797532 To SWITCH TO HTML formatted newsletters, please go to http://subscribers.tol.cz/newman/preferences.php?idsubs=797532&htmlmail=Y
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